29 Aug · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MJ
🇨🇿Martin Jaksa
ELO 1450
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Varecha
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Varecha
ELO 1508
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Varecha
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.