29 Aug · 17:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1582
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobisek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1542
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sychra🌟Sobisek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (123)
Fair odds · Sobisek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 36% · 2.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H40-70
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.