29 Aug · 16:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1542
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Brazda
AB
🇨🇿Adam Brazda
ELO 1569
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sychra🌟Brazda rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (40)
Fair odds · Brazda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.