29 Aug · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1582
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobisek
AB
🇨🇿Adam Brazda
ELO 1569
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brazda🌟Brazda covers set handicap as underdog 69% (52)
Fair odds · Sobisek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H6-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.