31 Aug · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1520
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skakal
MS
🇨🇿Martin Skakal
ELO 1574
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobisek
Fair odds · Skakal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.