31 Aug · 03:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Petr Bruzek
ELO 1462
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dolezal
VD
🇨🇿Vaclav Dolezal
ELO 1490
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Bruzek stays under total as underdog 64% (64)
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.