30 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1445
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Regner
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1481
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek
Fair odds · Regner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H17-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.