30 Aug · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RU
🇨🇿Radim Urbaniec
ELO 1560
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wagner
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1565
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.