31 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1565
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vedmoch
MK
🇨🇿Milan Kolar
ELO 1538
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolar🌟Kolar covers set handicap as underdog 71% (143)
Fair odds · Vedmoch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H22-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.