1 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1318
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smesny
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1355
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H30-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.