1 Sept · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Malek
ELO 1516
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Malek
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1465
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Malek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H27-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.