4 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1550
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Louda
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1598
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kasnik
Fair odds · Louda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H44-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.