3 Sept · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MW
🇨🇿Michal Wollny
ELO 1611
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wollny
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kratochvil
ELO 1585
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wollny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.