6 Sept · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DO
🇨🇿Dmytro Opanasiuk
ELO 1790
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Opanasiuk
JD
🇨🇿Jan Dzida
ELO 1743
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dzida
Fair odds · Opanasiuk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.