7 Sept · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Josef Medek
ELO 1851
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Medek
JZ
🇨🇿Jan Zajicek
ELO 1763
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Medek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+88
H2H146-105
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (146-105)