7 Sept · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1558
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Chalupa
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1450
FormWLWLL
56%
44%
🌟Chalupa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (176)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+108
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)