9 Sept · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇨🇿Roman Guliak
ELO 1498
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adam
RA
🇨🇿Radim Adam
ELO 1531
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Adam
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H24-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.