10 Sept · 00:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇨🇿Marcel Pikous
ELO 1563
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Regner
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1598
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Regner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H37-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.