10 Sept · 00:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1553
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wagner
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1590
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.