10 Sept · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Milan Kolar
ELO 1494
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dousa
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousa
ELO 1532
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolar🌟Kolar covers set handicap as underdog 68% (165)
Fair odds · Dousa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H20-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.