13 Sept · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1649
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zeman
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zeman
ELO 1671
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Barton🌟Zeman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H6-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.