13 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1649
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mares
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1721
FormLLLWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Barton🌟Barton covers set handicap as underdog 67% (55)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+72
H2H5-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.