13 Sept · 13:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1450
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Ulrych
MU
🇨🇿Martin Ulrych
ELO 1540
FormWWWWL
45%
55%
⚡ Cover lean · Ulrych🌟Barton stays under total as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Ulrych
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+90
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)