14 Sept · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1516
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zmuda
VC
🇨🇿Vladimir Cermak
ELO 1475
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Cermak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (176)
Fair odds · Zmuda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.