14 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿David Mutl
ELO 1310
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mutl
JC
🇨🇿Jaromir Cernik
ELO 1289
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mutl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H6-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.