14 Sept · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Szotkowski
ELO 1701
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Szotkowski
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1642
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Polasek🌟Polasek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (266)
Fair odds · Szotkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H27-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.