14 Sept · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1642
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Polasek
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1589
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Polasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (271)
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H44-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.