14 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1516
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vesely
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vesely
ELO 1551
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zmuda🌟Vesely rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (48)
Fair odds · Vesely
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.