14 Sept · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1443
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Berdych
PK
🇨🇿Pavel Kulhanek
ELO 1442
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H3-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.