14 Sept · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Varecha
ELO 1471
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Varecha
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Stach
ELO 1437
FormWWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Varecha stays under total as favourite 67% (45)
Fair odds · Varecha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.