14 Sept · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇨🇿Miroslav Barta
ELO 1414
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Barta
JF
🇨🇿Jan Framberk
ELO 1407
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Barta
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.