14 Sept · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇨🇿Miroslav Barta
ELO 1414
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Barta
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pleskot
ELO 1396
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Barta
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H4-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.