15 Sept · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇨🇿Jaroslav Bresky
ELO 1511
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bresky
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1487
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Darin
Fair odds · Bresky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.