15 Sept · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1693
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Paril
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1606
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Paril rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (280)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+87
H2H28-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-22)