15 Sept · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vesely
ELO 1527
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vesely
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1500
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zmuda🌟Vesely rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (49)
Fair odds · Vesely
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.