15 Sept · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Stolfa
ELO 1548
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stolfa
VC
🇨🇿Vladimir Cermak
ELO 1517
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Cermak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (177)
Fair odds · Stolfa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.