16 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Stary
ELO 1235
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Koch
JK
🇨🇿Jiri Koch
ELO 1240
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Koch
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.