16 Sept · 01:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Steffan
ELO 1492
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Steffan
PP
🇨🇿Petr Picek
ELO 1461
FormLLWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Steffan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H38-46
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.