16 Sept · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇨🇿Vaclav Hruska Sr
ELO 1393
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chalupnicek
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1459
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Chalupnicek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+66
H2H28-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.