16 Sept · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Schwan
ELO 1588
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schwan
MH
🇨🇿Marcel Heczko
ELO 1548
FormLLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Heczko covers set handicap as underdog 65% (115)
Fair odds · Schwan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 74% · 1.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H5-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.