15 Sept · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1740
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mares
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1668
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zahradka🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (254)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 71% · 1.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+72
H2H30-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.