17 Sept · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jiri Koch
ELO 1242
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Koch
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1227
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Koch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 27% · 3.68· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.