18 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZD
🇨🇿Zbynek Drabek
ELO 1426
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Drabek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1388
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Drabek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (36)
Fair odds · Drabek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.