18 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zikmunda
ELO 1437
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zikmunda
ZD
🇨🇿Zbynek Drabek
ELO 1426
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Drabek🌟Drabek goes over total as underdog 81% (16)
Fair odds · Zikmunda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.