18 Sept · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇨🇿Samuel Byrtus
ELO 1555
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Levicky
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Levicky
ELO 1559
FormLWWLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Levicky
Fair odds · Levicky
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H17-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.