18 Sept · 01:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Franek
ELO 1562
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Regner
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1565
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Regner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H3-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.