18 Sept · 00:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Skakal
ELO 1592
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skakal
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Franek
ELO 1562
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Skakal
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.