18 Sept · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇨🇿Jaromir Cernik
ELO 1316
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Marjan
MM
🇨🇿Marcel Marjan
ELO 1378
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Marjan
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.