18 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LN
🇨🇿Ladislav Novotny
ELO 1331
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marjan
MM
🇨🇿Marcel Marjan
ELO 1378
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Novotny stays under total as underdog 69% (55)
Fair odds · Marjan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.