18 Sept · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇨🇿Matyas Kolek
ELO 1447
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Guliak
RG
🇨🇿Roman Guliak
ELO 1457
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolek🌟Guliak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (75)
Fair odds · Guliak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.